:24 SECONDS
Building the next generation of NBA analytics
The Vision
This platform aims to combine historical player values, contract data, projections, cap space analysis, and draft pick valuations to create comprehensive team-level projections extending 25+ years into the future.
The goal: move beyond single-season predictions to understand the full trajectory of franchise value—from current championship contention to long-term asset accumulation through the draft.
Current State
The platform currently features:
- Historical player value metrics (BPM) from 1950-2026
- Player search and comparison tools
- Team roster analysis
- Basic projection framework (in development)
This is Version 1—a foundation being built toward something far more sophisticated.
The Innovation
At the core is a novel approach to player value: a fully decomposed metric where every aspect of basketball contribution— shot creation, finishing efficiency, defensive impact—is broken down into its constituent parts.
The key insight: taking a shot changes all four factors simultaneously, even before you know if it goes in. By choosing to take an unassisted mid-range shot, a player decreases expected efficiency but also decreases turnover probability and creates rebounding opportunities. Traditional metrics miss this nuance.
This decomposition will eventually power projections that understand not just "how good is this player," but "how will this specific skillset age" and "how does this player's value change in different contexts."
What's Next
Near Term
- Age curve implementation for projections
- Contract data integration
- Draft pick valuation system
- Team-level projection aggregation
Long Term
- Custom play-by-play based value metric
- Full four-factors decomposition tree
- RAPM-based defensive evaluation
- 25-year championship probability projections
Standing on Shoulders
This project is inspired by the pioneering work of DARKO, Dunks and Threes, and FiveThirtyEight's NBA model. The goal is to learn from their innovations while pushing the boundaries of what's possible in basketball analytics.